White Marlin Invitational Tournament
Beach Haven Marlin and Tuna Club
Monday, July 23, 2007:
Well, I don’t want to jinx things but the weather is lining up wonderfully for this year’s event. I just got off the phone (Monday afternoon) with my buddies at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly. We talked about upcoming canyon skies – at length.
The long and short of it: Canyon winds not much above 15 mph — and 5-foot swells at largest – are likely for Wednesday and Thursday, with slightly harder south to southwest winds by Friday and Saturday – providing mainland weather patterns play out as the computers now foresee.
Now, to the technical side of sky-things.
This departing low has, in a sense, created a void in the nearshore weather. With the low high-speeding to the northeast, it is usually the mainland weather systems that step in, often with the proverbial post-storm cold front. It’s just not happening. In fact, a very rare phenomenon is taking place.
A low-pressure trough in the Midwest is being very obstinate, barely moving anywhere. It is essentially holding back any mainland weather that could reach us. So, the high-pressure system that was with us last week – and was forced well into the Atlantic due to the significant muscle of the short-lived low that buffeted the coast last night – is retrograding. It is literally moving against the grain – traveling in an ultra-rare east to west direction.
According to the Weather Service, it is tough to guess how this high-pressure will move as it returns our way. But, even if it comes right back to where it began, the winds associated with it shouldn’t be much to speak of.
Now here’s something quirky that could loom large for the fishing side of things. The retrograding high might very well plant itself near the NT2 zone (Hudson to Baltimore – canyons).
As you may know, the winds at the center of a high are light to, potentially, calm. That could mean that Wednesday and Thursday might well be lake-like offshore – problematic for those folks who like a nice surface stir to liven things up and disguise teasers and such.
It is not until Friday and Saturday that the stubborn low-pressure trough (by then over Ohio) begins to make serious moves on the coast, likely becoming part of a weak cold frontal system. By that time, the more typical pre-frontal winds will pick up out of the south (nearshore) and southwest (offshore). However, short of a surprise low pressure forming to our south, even the approaching system(s) will only minimally impact the offshore zone. Winds might rise to 10 to 15 out there, though folks heading back in by late afternoon could hit the far crisper flow nearshore, possible gusting into the 20s – typical late-day high pressure primer wind-age.
In a nutshell: The weather for the event could be almost too uneventful.
Of course, no one but the captains can make that final push-off determination of winds and weather. I foresee some smaller craft owners eying the calm weather as an invite to grab a bladder and zip out to play with the big boys. Such a move is always wrought with unexpected hazards. Best bet is to stay tuned to the OPC (Ocean Prediction Center).
